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In Focus
About 2024 elections
The much-anticipated elections for the national assembly and four provincial assemblies of Pakistan ended at 1700 hrs today. There were a few complaints; the primary one was against the State’s decision to stop mobile network connectivity across the country. Political parties complained against the network disruption; for example, the PPP in a written complaint stated that the voters were unable to access polling station, and the party was unable to coordinate the logistics with its members. There were a few complaints of rigging and overcrowding in a few booths, for example, in Karachi. The PTI had asked for an extension of polling time; though the election commission had extended the timing in a few places, in most of Pakistan, voting ended at 1700 hrs. There was also sporadic violence in a few places, including a huge attack, claimed by the Islamic State, a day before the election. The counting process has started.
What is at stake? For the national assembly, four provincial assemblies, and the entire country, the elections are critical not only for the forming of the government, but for the entire political and democratic processes that had started since the first constitution was promulgated and the first elections. The first democratic election took place almost two decades after 1947. Ever since there were two major interventions by the military in the 1970s and later in the 1990s. Though electoral democracy returned, there are more checks than balances between the political institutions and the Establishment.
For Pakistan, it is more than just another election. For the PML-N and Nawaz Sharif, it is more than the return to Punjab and also become relevant at the national level. For the PTI and Imran Khan, it is the question of existence and survival. For the PPP and Bilawal Bhutto, it is the entry of the third generation and its ability to be relevant in Sindh and national politics. Besides the PTI, this election should be a matter of survival for the PML-Q (in Punjab) and the MQM (in Karachi). For the two main religious parties – JI and JUI-F, the election results should also be a matter of existence and being relevant at the national level.
What is at stake for Pakistan?
Today, on 8 February, 12th general elections to elect the members of the national assembly and the four provincial legislatures were held simultaneously. The path towards this day for Pakistan has been fraught with fissures and tensions - with allegations of the absence of a level playing field for a major political party and a general uptick in election-related violence.
Ensuring free and fair elections is a litmus test for all democracies. For Pakistan, with its history of military rule and military intervention during rule by democratic governments, elections offer a unique chance for redemption and refurbishment. Free and fair elections play an important role in forging and fostering public trust in not only the political institutions that are responsible for the elections but also parties and leaders that emerge victorious and form the new government. Elections are the bulwark of a democratic set-up and maintaining the impartiality of the process is often an uphill task. Pakistan seems to have already lost the battle on this front. The systematic dismantling and sidelining of the PTI- stripping the party of its electoral symbol right before the elections, the rejection of PTI candidates’ nomination papers in bulk by the Election Commission of Pakistan, PTI’s accusations of intimidation and arrests of its candidates during canvassing and the hasty verdicts delivered against its former chairman and de-facto leader Imran Khan on the eve of elections- has given the impression that not only is there no level playing field for parties but also that the establishment will always be the kingmaker in the country. The opportunity for Pakistan to deepen the roots of its democracy and hence assuring the legitimacy of the next government is by and large a lost cause for now.
With a backdrop of a flailing economy, an upsurge in terrorist activities, a deterioration in relations with its neighbor Afghanistan and the recent stand-off with Iran, it can be argued with some credence that what Pakistan needs is a stable government at the centre. Even though a stable government is not a one stop solution, it has the mandate and wherewithal to take concrete steps in order to deal with the myriad crisis plaguing the nation. A stable government will be able to push through some of the tough measures that are required. Referring to the same, an article in Dawn stated that Pakistan has been run by “hybrid regimes” since 2017 and this has “left deep scars on the economy”- leading to both inflation and devaluation. The article also hopes that “the incoming government must not have an embattled mandate.”
What is at stake for the major political parties? Five Questions
1. With the Establishment’s support, will the PML-N emerge victorious?
On 27 January, PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif unveiled the party manifesto “Pakistan ko SachheManshoorat se Nawaz Do,” (Bless Pakistan with True Manifesto). The manifesto heavily focused on the economic promises aiming to revive the GDP, control inflation, create employment opportunities and resolve the circular debt crisis. Additionally, the party aims to abolish the National Accountability Bureau and create an Ethics committee. Its foreign policy looks towards stabilizing relations with India while asserting that the normalization of ties is only possible if India reverses the 05 August 2019 order which revoked Article 370 (special autonomous status for Jammu and Kashmir). The manifesto gave special mention to the CPEC initiative and producing deliverables on time. “Pakistan ko Nawaz Do”, a clever play of words in PML-N’s slogan, highlights that what the party has to offer is not only limited to the promises it outlined but also the return of Pakistan’s “Saviour” Quaid Nawaz Sharif.
With the alleged support of the deep state, would PML-N emerge as the victor? The idea that PML-N will win the forthcoming elections, especially with the backing of the Establishment, has already gained ground and credence with the return of Nawaz Sharif and the consistent sidelining of the PTI. What is further at stake for PML-N is forming a majority government by whisking away the province of Punjab. It is by default that whoever wins Punjab wins Pakistan, and rightly so, as the province holds the largest share in the National Assembly with 141 seats. In the 2018 election, PML-N was only able to win 79 seats, while Imran Khan got 83 seats, forming the 2018 government. If it fails to form a majority government, it is expected that PML-N can come to power by collaborating with smaller independent parties. But if it is successful in gaining a simple majority, Nawaz Sharif is set to become the Prime Minister of Pakistan for the fourth term as Shehbaz Sharif announced him as the choice of PML-N’s prime ministerial candidate.
2. Without the Establishment’s support, will the PTI survive the 2024 elections?
The release of the PTI manifesto came as a surprise as the party has faced a systemic crackdown since the 09 May 2023 incident. PTI Barrister Gohar Khan unveiled the manifesto aimed at: “Empowering Pakistan with an equitable, progressive and inclusive future...” It focused on restructuring the legislative to be more accountable. They proposed direct election for the Prime Minister office, reduction of the National Assembly term to four years and the Senate to five years. The party envisions forming a truth and reconciliation commission to deal with the disparity in the rule of law. Create a welfare state “Riyasat-i-Madina,” by overhauling the legislature, judiciary and bureaucracy. In line with this, they call to reform the Code of Criminal Procedure (CrPC) and want transparency in the allotment of judges. To cater for the economic challenges facing Pakistan they suggest increased subsidies for farmers and capacity/skill-building goals for the youth. PTI’s foreign policy prioritized the “Pakistan First” policy, based on Islamic identity and principles.
The tables have turned for PTI with PML-N, as it finds itself in the same position as them in 2018. The adversely hit PTI’s stake is different from that of its contenders. PTI claims that the political crackdown against its party had left it to nought and sees itself as the victim of political engineering by the establishment which it is. The stakes for the party are survival and finding ground. The loss of a level playing field has brought dire consequences for the party with the loss of electoral symbol which effectively bans the party and forces them to contest as independents and the hasty indictment of their popular Chairman Imran Khan. Regardless, PTI believes that it would come back to power with a full majority and some agree, as the victimization has garnered major support. Though many remain skeptical of the PTI’s return to its old glory, the party would try to find its ground in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and has to in order to stay relevant.
3. Will Bilawal become the new face of the PPP and be its third-generation leader?
The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, has projected itself as a party that wants to “bury the politics of political revenge” and use its comprehensive 10-point ‘people’s social contract to address various social and economic challenges faced by the nation. Their agenda is titled “Chuno Nai Sach Ko (elect new vision), and their central argument has been that “the old ways haven’t worked” as the “governments of the right-wing political parties have failed to deliver for the people.” From an economic perspective, the PPP has promised to double income, grant proprietary rights to women, increase stipends for the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP), and provide interest-free loans to empower women economically. It has also claimed to be the “Pakistan’s only pro-poor party,” with PPP leader Senator Sherry Rehman stressing that they would not allow “the rich to get far, far richer before they allow their wealth to trickle down to the landless, the poor, the unemployed, and the un-empowered.” This is why proposals regarding accessible education and healthcare were included in the manifesto, and funding would be brought in by redirecting subsidies from the elite to the masses.
Despite such a comprehensive manifesto, an editorial in Dawn pointed out that the party was experiencing a “fading influence,” and having come third in the 2018 elections with 54 NA seats, the “party’s fortune has plummeted.” Therefore in 2024, PPP is faced with the task of retaining its stronghold in Sindh while convincing Pakistan that “it can deliver beyond provincial politics and establish itself once again as a true national force.” Within Sindh, it will have to be a worthy opponent to the PML-N’s electoral alliance with the MQM-P, GDA, and a few electables. Though Bilawal decided to contest from Lahore to broaden his national image, there is a chance that measures to spread influence outside of Sindh were taken too late. The PPP’s influence in Punjab has waned, with the party struggling to connect with voters beyond its traditional base. A further decline in Punjab would not only reduce the PPP’s representation in the National Assembly but also signal a diminishing relevance in national politics. Thus, while it is extremely important for PPP to retain its influence in Sindh, it is equally (if not more) important for it to regain lost ground in other provinces, especially Punjab. Additionally, if it is unable to counter PTI and the PML-N in KP and Punjab respectively, the PPP would face a weakening ability to negotiate power-sharing agreements and alliances at the federal level. An editorial in Dawn suggested that in order to appeal to voters, Bhutto must “breathe new life into the PPP.”
4. Will the MQM get revived?
In the 2024 elections, the MQM-Pakistan (MQM-P) is positioning itself as a party committed to constitutional reform and inclusivity in the 2024 elections. Convener Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui’s recent address in Karachi outlined their vision for a government that represents all Pakistanis, promising to reform the constitution to ensure the rights of all citizens. Siddiqui emphasized inclusivity and called on everyone to “gather and unite.” Additionally, the party is focusing on internal mobilization, urging supporters to compile lists of relatives and friends to engage in the electoral process actively. Siddiqui’s speech reflects a strategic shift towards unity, inclusivity, and a vision for a representative government.Mustafa Kamal, another prominent figure within MQM-P, highlighted the party’s significance as a beacon of hope for marginalized communities, additionally placing significance on water theft in Karachi and asserting that there would be “an end to those who steal water from this city.”
A Dawn editorial described Karachi as“a stronghold of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement until the 2018 general elections when the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf marched into its fort.” However, Kamal claimed that the city “belongs to the MQM,” and that “no one can take this city away” from them. The 2018 elections were also significant as they were the first elections after the MQM-P’s founder, Altaf Hussain, left the party to form his MQM-L.Hussain’s departure, according to an MQM-P leader, left the party with significantly less public support and lesser funds. Therefore MQM-P is now challenged with facing the JI, PTI, and the MQM-L all within Karachi, all of who could “hurt MQM-P’s vote bank.”A defeat in Sindh could have ripple effects on MQM-P’s national standing and organizational cohesion, considering that the party has traditionally relied on its stronghold in Karachi to maintain relevance and leverage in national politics. Its ability to advocate for the rights of urban residents, especially Mohajirs, would also diminish.
A Dawn editorial questioned why MQM-P leaders were “still optimistic about the party’s chances in the upcoming elections,” given that the “growing factionalism within the party has led to a further bifurcation of its voter base.” This means that another major factor at stake is preventing a poor electoral performance from exacerbating internal divisions, as further division could undermine its ability to present a united front and pursue its political agenda effectively.
5. What about the religious political parties – especially the JUI-F?
The conservative religious Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam — Fazl (JUI-F) party has experienced an increase in popularity in Pakistani politics, while witnessing a spate of killings in the run-up to the 2024 elections and last few years in general. The party has previously formed alliances with the JI, PPP, and ANP, proving that it is open to form coalitions. The JUI-F, which as per a Dawn editorial is a mix of “politics of ideology and politics of pragmatism,” has primarily focused on “practical steps” for women's safety, equal education, and employment opportunities in its manifesto. The manifesto advocates for the complete separation of the judiciary from administration, “changes in laws to align with Shariah principles,” freedom of the press, provincial autonomy, tax exemptions for essential food items, and equalization of daily wages. However, the manifesto was criticised as being a “very hardcore” one by a Pakistani TV show host and analyst, as the party allegedly believes that “none other than a Muslim belonging to their sect” should assume important political positions.
The JUI-F faces significant challenges and potential losses in the 2024 elections, especially in terms of provincial representation and party influence. In the 2018 elections, it contested under the MMA banner and won 12 seats in total. One of the major challenges for the JUI-F will be protecting itself from attacks from the Islamic State (IS) group, as the party has constantly been targeted and subject to bomb attacks. Imran Mahir, one of the party’s candidates in Bajaur, said that they had been forced to scale back their “election activities” due to a suicide bombing “targeting” a rally. The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), which has also targeted the JUI-F, described the party’s ideals as “quite scary and concerning.” JUI-F leaders have admitted that they have been subject to multiple targets from militant groups over the years for prioritizing “democratic values over banned jihadi groups and sectarian parties.” Thus, protecting itself is one of its biggest obstacles.
According to a Dawn editorial, the “JUI-F is making efforts to regain its foothold in Punjab” by revamping its “provincial structure” and bringing in new leaders. To get support in Balochistan, it will have to navigate its way around “conflicting stances on supporting the Taliban and insurgency in Afghanistan.” In Sindh, the party has “historical roots,” and thus gaining support steadily has been slightly easier due to its “blend of local politics and religion with Sindhi ethno-nationalism.” For JUI-F to remain relevant while maintaining its image as a religious party, the leaders will have to rethink the party’s structure to effectively “mix Islamist principles with practical electoral politics” in a way that appeals to voters. This will allow it to play a significant role in forming a coalition government.
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